Super Bowl XLIV will feature two strikingly similar teams. The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints both have explosive offenses and underrated defenses. They both rely on strong-armed, smart quarterbacks and forcing turnovers on defense. Here’s a more in-depth analysis of what to expect in this year’s big game:
Passing Advantage: Colts. It’s hard to pick against Peyton Manning, the best in the business, but Drew Brees at least warrants some consideration. However, if my team had the ball with under two minutes left and needing a score to win the game, there isn’t anyone else on this planet I would want under center more than Manning. The guy proves over and over again why you can’t let him have time to drive down the field in clutch situations. He seems to have another level of play that only shows when it matters the most. Drew Brees simply can’t compete.
Rushing Advantage: Saints. This one is easy, as the Colts run game is nearly nonexistent. Meanwhile, the Saints rely heavily on the run, using a platoon of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton. The Colts only run enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
Defensive Advantage: Colts. They had to endure the loss of dynamic safety Bob Sanders early in the year and might be without All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney for the Super Bowl. However, they always find a way to overcome any adversity and force turnovers. For that reason, I’ll give the advantage to the Colts in this category.
Special Teams Advantage: Saints. Courtney Roby is one of the better kickoff return specialists in the game, and Reggie Bush has explosive potential as a punt returner. Also, kicker Garrett Hartley showed last week that he can hit the clutch field goals (unlike Chargers K Nate Kaeding) that are so important in the playoffs.
Coaching Advantage: Saints. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind. Gregg Williams is a defensive mastermind. Put them on the same team and one would expect nothing less than a playoff-caliber team. Colts coach Jim Caldwell is no slouch in the coaching department, but the jury is still out on how much of the Colts’ success is a carryover from the Tony Dungy era.
Match-up to watch when Colts have the ball: QB Peyton Manning vs. FS Darren Sharper: Peyton Manning tends to make more mistakes than usual when there is an elite safety on the field. Baltimore’s Ed Reed had two interceptions in two games against the Colts this season. Jets CB Darrelle Revis shut down WR Reggie Wayne last week, holding him to only three catches for 55 yards and no touchdowns. The difference between Revis and Sharper is that Sharper will be all over the field. He will be reading Manning’s eyes and trying to guess where Manning will throw the ball. If Sharper can come up with an interception early, it could make Manning a little more tentative with his passes.
Match-up to watch when Saints have the ball: DE Dwight Freeney vs. LT Jermon Bushrod: Bushrod did a great job against Vikings DE Jared Allen last week. He won’t be able to take a play off in the Super Bowl either if he has Dwight Freeney lining up across from him. The reason I say “if” is that Freeney is battling a severe ankle sprain and might not be able to play. But my gut feeling is that he will do everything humanly possible and then some in order to get on the field for the big game. That gives Bushrod a much-needed advantage. A healthy Dwight Freeney beats a healthy Bushrod most of the time, but an injured Freeney will beat Bushrod much less often. This will be key for the Saints, as QB Drew Brees has only been sacked once in two playoff games.
Prediction: Saints 31, Colts 24: The Saints jump out to an early lead before the Colts defense figures out a way to stop them. By then, it’ll be too late for even Peyton Manning to bring the Colts back. Then the parades will begin down in New Orleans.
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
As much as Freeny wants to be in the BIG game, he will be a liability if he can’t get pressure on Brees.
So glad that I’m sticking to the Econ jargon. Haha. The analysis is spot on according to my contacts in the sports-knowledge areas.
NEVER bet against me.
I think the Colts’ defense might be the answer to the Saints’ rushing. I’d like to see the Saints win, but I have no problem at all with a Colts win (which strikes me as marginally more probable).
You called it right! You had the Saints’ point score correct, and you were just 7 points below the Colts’ score.
Well done, Adam! So glad you called this one correctly; I was really pulling for Brees and the Saints.